These dynamics have led the financial markets to coalesce around the notion that the two most likely outcomes of the election are either a Republican sweep or a Harris win with a split government.
After slowing for several months, macro conditions have improved relative to expectations this fall as the S&P 500 has resumed its steady upward march.
While 2Q24 was characterized by narrow market leadership and a hawkish repricing of Fed rate-cut expectations, 3Q saw solid performance from a wider spectrum of companies and increasing expectations for rate cuts in 2024.
Bob Doll’s new white paper delves into the critical dynamics that will shape the final six weeks of this election cycle, including: Potential market reactions before and after the election, historical predictors of elections and current candidate positions based on those predictors, challenges the country will face regardless of the winner, and much more.
"What is the macro environment trying to tell us? I think it's trying to tell us that there's still reason to be cautious," says Chief Market Strategist Victoria Fernandez, CFA. Check out her appearance on BNN Bloomberg as she discusses signals from U.S. Federal Reserve officials about potentially more and larger interest rate cuts in the near future.
