Commentary

Fingers Crossed / Cautiously Optimistic
Doll’s Deliberations

Fingers Crossed / Cautiously Optimistic

Market sentiment continues to wax and wane in response to changes in oil prices, but investors generally remain sanguine. A month ago, global equities were reeling, bond yields were rising, and balanced portfolios were being hit by a double whammy. Yet equities have mostly recovered their war-driven losses. What’s next? Bob takes a look at the current state of the markets and what to expect next week.

05/04/2026
Is There a Deal? – Market Thinks Yes
Doll’s Deliberations

Is There a Deal? – Market Thinks Yes

Investors apparently believe maximum risk related to the war is over, and the damage so far will not unduly impact the global economic expansion. With markets back near all-time highs, valuations leave little room for setbacks. Can the rally be trusted? Bob looks at the headlines and highlights what matters.

04/20/2026
A Ceasefire – But Will It Hold?
Doll’s Deliberations

A Ceasefire – But Will It Hold?

Inflation remained hotter than ideal in February, even before the latest rise in energy prices, reinforcing the view that price pressures may prove more stubborn than many had hoped. In this week’s commentary, Bob highlights why this inflation signal deserves attention and what it could mean for markets in the months ahead.

04/13/2026
The War Continues to Hurt Risk Assets
Doll’s Deliberations

The War Continues to Hurt Risk Assets

Markets have now fallen for four straight weeks as the war in the Middle East, oil-price uncertainty, sticky inflation, and weakening earnings expectations weigh on sentiment. Bob Doll explains why the key issue is not just the geopolitical turmoil itself.

03/23/2026
War Unknowns Dominate the Dialogue
Doll’s Deliberations

War Unknowns Dominate the Dialogue

War fears, oil shock, and inflation pressure are driving volatility. But have they changed the bigger market story? Bob Doll breaks down what the Iran conflict could mean for inflation, rates, and portfolios, and why the broader expansion may still be on track.

03/16/2026
Special Edition of Doll’s Deliberations
Doll’s Deliberations

Special Edition of Doll’s Deliberations

Equity futures (down more than 1% as I write) were down 2% a few hours ago as oil skyrocketed to nearly $120 per barrel (now just over $100). That’s a near doubling since just before the war started. Risk asset declines are reflecting a concern about a stagflationary environment (high inflation and low growth.) The $100 oil level is seen by many as a breaking point for the global economy.

03/09/2026
Will the War Upset Global Economic Momentum?
Doll’s Deliberations

Will the War Upset Global Economic Momentum?

The war in Iran hit equities and other risk markets hard last week. The ratcheting up of geopolitical tensions added to pre-existing investor nervousness about excesses in AI-related equities, mounting strains in private credit, and high valuations. This triggered widespread selling pressure as investors rotated to cash. But history suggests geopolitical events only have a sustained impact on capital markets if they materially alter the economic outlook. What does it all mean for investors? Bob breaks it down in this week’s newsletter.

03/09/2026
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