Commentary

Good Economic Outlook Constrained by High Valuations

Good Economic Outlook Constrained by High Valuations

The unique features of the current business cycle include prolonged accommodative monetary and fiscal policies and the associated excess liquidity, extraordinary corporate profitability, mega cap companies able to dominate global technology, and the AI theme that promises unlimited economic benefits.

Valuation Concerns Are Never a Timing Tool

Valuation Concerns Are Never a Timing Tool

Te​​nsions between the Federal Reserve and President Trump have steadily increased this year, even though Chair Powell acquiesced to pressures by signaling an imminent rate cut in his Jackson Hole speech. However, the President wants much lower rates, not just the occasional 25-basis-point reduction . . .

Threading the Needle Gets Tougher

Threading the Needle Gets Tougher

Mega cap growth stocks fell back last week (until Friday) following yet another climb to new highs. Valuations for these companies have become extended, similar to previous episodes when investment stampedes developed, because new technologies led to open-ended expectations at a time of plentiful liquidity . . .