Commentary

Valuation Concerns Are Never a Timing Tool
Doll’s Deliberations

Valuation Concerns Are Never a Timing Tool

Te​​nsions between the Federal Reserve and President Trump have steadily increased this year, even though Chair Powell acquiesced to pressures by signaling an imminent rate cut in his Jackson Hole speech. However, the President wants much lower rates, not just the occasional 25-basis-point reduction . . .

09/02/2025
Threading the Needle Gets Tougher
Doll’s Deliberations

Threading the Needle Gets Tougher

Mega cap growth stocks fell back last week (until Friday) following yet another climb to new highs. Valuations for these companies have become extended, similar to previous episodes when investment stampedes developed, because new technologies led to open-ended expectations at a time of plentiful liquidity . . .

08/25/2025
The Bond Market Is More Key Than Usual
Doll’s Deliberations

The Bond Market Is More Key Than Usual

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ yet again hit new record highs last week. The U.S. economy is still holding up well despite higher tariffs and related turbulence. A resumption of growth is likely in 2026 after some softness over the second half of this year. All bets are off if the tariff war escalates.

07/21/2025
The Second Half Begins With New Highs Yet Again
Doll’s Deliberations

The Second Half Begins With New Highs Yet Again

After a string of political wins and the rekindling of animal spirits in financial asset markets, it should not be surprising that Trump would return to the tariff war with some aggressive threats. Still, he is providing plenty of wiggle room for countries to negotiate a “deal.”

07/14/2025
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