Doll’s Deliberations

From the mind of industry veteran Bob Doll comes Doll's Deliberations®, a weekly investment commentary.

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Commentary

The Bond Market Is More Key Than Usual

Doll’s Deliberations

The Bond Market Is More Key Than Usual

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ yet again hit new record highs last week. The U.S. economy is still holding up well despite higher tariffs and related turbulence. A resumption of growth is likely in 2026 after some softness over the second half of this year. All bets are off if the tariff war escalates.

07/21/2025

The Second Half Begins With New Highs Yet Again

Doll’s Deliberations

The Second Half Begins With New Highs Yet Again

After a string of political wins and the rekindling of animal spirits in financial asset markets, it should not be surprising that Trump would return to the tariff war with some aggressive threats. Still, he is providing plenty of wiggle room for countries to negotiate a “deal.”

07/14/2025

Bob Doll’s Quarterly Investment Commentary 3Q 2025

Market Insights, Thought Leadership, Doll’s Deliberations

Bob Doll’s Quarterly Investment Commentary 3Q 2025

In his quarterly commentary, Bob Doll reviews what drove the sharp rebound in stocks during 2Q25 and what’s driving markets higher now, plus he examines key risks—a cooling labor market, slowing earnings growth, and elevated valuations—and the macro forces likely to shape the second half of the year.

07/07/2025

Are We Approaching an Inflection Point?

Doll’s Deliberations

Are We Approaching an Inflection Point?

Just when it seemed the macro backdrop was brightening and the global economic expansion might gain traction, the Middle East erupted and triggered a spike in oil prices. Is it time to rethink one's portfolio strategy?

06/23/2025

Tariffs, Economic Uncertainties, and Now, Higher Oil Prices

Doll’s Deliberations

Tariffs, Economic Uncertainties, and Now, Higher Oil Prices

The near-term economic and inflation outlook is still clouded by tariff increases and uncertainty regarding the ultimate endpoint of U.S. trade policy.

06/16/2025

Stocks supported by a somewhat resilient economy, but could be challenged by tariff-driven earnings disappointments or rising interest rates

Doll’s Deliberations

Stocks supported by a somewhat resilient economy, but could be challenged by tariff-driven earnings disappointments or rising interest rates

Equities have recovered most of their tariff-driven losses from earlier this year, when markets abruptly went from overbought to oversold (to now neutral).

06/09/2025

Are We Out of the Woods Yet?

Doll’s Deliberations

Are We Out of the Woods Yet?

As the dust settles after a volatile first five months of the year, investors are biased to buy risk assets. Record or near-record highs are frequently recorded in a wide range of markets, including equities, credit, real estate, gold, etc. Clearly, there is no shortage of investable liquidity.

06/02/2025

The Bond Vigilantes Are Awake!

Doll’s Deliberations

The Bond Vigilantes Are Awake!

The key pressures on asset markets are shifting back to those that existed prior to the tariff war. The risk of recession has receded, which will reinforce the stickiness of inflation. There is a growing threat of higher bond yields and the attendant downward pressure on equity valuations.

05/27/2025

Rising Equities Reflect Easing Tariff Tensions

Doll’s Deliberations

Rising Equities Reflect Easing Tariff Tensions

Trump has pulled back considerably from claiming he will pursue trade tariffs regardless of the near-run economic damage. The main takeaway is that there are limits to how far U.S. trade policy can be pushed when Treasury and equity markets riot (as well as increasing complaints from the business sector).

05/19/2025

Can Reduced Trade Tensions Avert a Recession?

Doll’s Deliberations

Can Reduced Trade Tensions Avert a Recession?

Some calm has returned to global financial markets after a wild past few months. There are rising hopes that the U.S. will not push the global economy over the cliff by pursuing its global trade war at all costs.

05/12/2025