Commentary

Are We Out of the Woods Yet?
Doll’s Deliberations

Are We Out of the Woods Yet?

As the dust settles after a volatile first five months of the year, investors are biased to buy risk assets. Record or near-record highs are frequently recorded in a wide range of markets, including equities, credit, real estate, gold, etc. Clearly, there is no shortage of investable liquidity.

06/02/2025
The Bond Vigilantes Are Awake!
Doll’s Deliberations

The Bond Vigilantes Are Awake!

The key pressures on asset markets are shifting back to those that existed prior to the tariff war. The risk of recession has receded, which will reinforce the stickiness of inflation. There is a growing threat of higher bond yields and the attendant downward pressure on equity valuations.

05/27/2025
Rising Equities Reflect Easing Tariff Tensions
Doll’s Deliberations

Rising Equities Reflect Easing Tariff Tensions

Trump has pulled back considerably from claiming he will pursue trade tariffs regardless of the near-run economic damage. The main takeaway is that there are limits to how far U.S. trade policy can be pushed when Treasury and equity markets riot (as well as increasing complaints from the business sector).

05/19/2025
A Pause That Refreshes?
Doll’s Deliberations

A Pause That Refreshes?

After nonstop negative policy actions or threats to the economy, President Trump eased back on two major initiatives last week, providing relief to beleaguered bond and stock markets.

04/28/2025
An Attempt to Define the Current State of Play
Doll’s Deliberations

An Attempt to Define the Current State of Play

Investors and businesses came into this year with misplaced optimism that President Trump would promote pro-growth policies and fuel higher risk asset prices. In a matter of months, Trump has instead effectively sidelined the U.S. exceptionalism theme, triggered a significant stock market correction, severely impaired what was a strong U.S. economy, and is approaching the brink of a “crisis of confidence.”

04/21/2025
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