Doll’s Deliberations

No Recession So Far

Why has recession not happened?

04/01/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Double-Digit Earnings Growth and Multiple Fed Rate Cuts Seem Incompatible

The Fed met and, as expected, did not move rates, but seems determined to cut rates with the timing getting pushed further into the future.

03/25/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Becoming More Concerned

Last week’s inflation reports evidence that the glide path for a return to 2% inflation is not unfolding the ways the bulls and the Fed have been anticipating.

03/18/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Priced for Perfection?

Equities have benefitted from investors upgrading their economic and earnings growth estimates after the consensus was too cautious at the start of the year.

03/11/2024

Doll’s Deliberations

Rate Cuts Continue to Be Pushed Back in Time

Capital markets have moved with expectations regarding the Fed swinging from undue fears of excessive tightening in 2022 and most of 2023 to over optimism about rate cuts going forward, although expectations have receded significantly since mid-January.

03/04/2024

Doll’s Deliberations

Will Excesses Lead to a Turn?

The recession camp has far fewer adherents than a year ago, thinned out by the surge in U.S. growth, a revival in global trade and, more recently, signs of a trough in the global PMI manufacturing index.

02/26/2024

Doll’s Deliberations

Signs of Economic Slowing and Sticky Inflation are Emerging

The high-risk, expensive bull market, is attempting to continue.

02/20/2024

Doll’s Deliberations

Hard Landing → Soft Landing → No Landing → Taking Off?

Economic activity is broadening and strengthening.

02/12/2024

Doll’s Deliberations

Sugar High Continues

Capital market pricing is consistent with an ideal future, comprising a sustained period of healthy economic growth, falling and persistent low inflation, and aggressive central bank rate cuts.

02/05/2024

Doll’s Deliberations

Earnings Growth and Fed Cut Expectations Remain Robust

The odds of an aggressive Fed rate-cutting cycle receded further last week, with increasing evidence of economic resilience, if not an outright improvement in growth.

01/29/2024

Commentary

Why has recession not happened?

The Fed met and, as expected, did not move rates, but seems determined to cut rates with the timing getting pushed further into the future.

Last week’s inflation reports evidence that the glide path for a return to 2% inflation is not unfolding the ways the bulls and the Fed have been anticipating.

Equities have benefitted from investors upgrading their economic and earnings growth estimates after the consensus was too cautious at the start of the year.

Capital markets have moved with expectations regarding the Fed swinging from undue fears of excessive tightening in 2022 and most of 2023 to over optimism about rate cuts going forward, although expectations have receded significantly since mid-January.

The recession camp has far fewer adherents than a year ago, thinned out by the surge in U.S. growth, a revival in global trade and, more recently, signs of a trough in the global PMI manufacturing index.

The high-risk, expensive bull market, is attempting to continue.

Economic activity is broadening and strengthening.

Capital market pricing is consistent with an ideal future, comprising a sustained period of healthy economic growth, falling and persistent low inflation, and aggressive central bank rate cuts.

The odds of an aggressive Fed rate-cutting cycle receded further last week, with increasing evidence of economic resilience, if not an outright improvement in growth.

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