Doll’s Deliberations

From the mind of industry veteran Bob Doll comes Doll's Deliberations®, a weekly investment commentary.

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Commentary

Earnings Are Supportive, But Rich Valuations Limit Potential

Doll’s Deliberations

Earnings Are Supportive, But Rich Valuations Limit Potential

Investors are in an exuberant mood (aside from some occasional indigestion), with the S&P 500 up markedly since early April on the back of a sharp rebound in Mag 7 stocks from this year’s lows, the AI theme, plentiful global liquidity and expansionary G7 fiscal policy . . .

09/08/2025

Valuation Concerns Are Never a Timing Tool

Doll’s Deliberations

Valuation Concerns Are Never a Timing Tool

Tensions between the Federal Reserve and President Trump have steadily increased this year, even though Chair Powell acquiesced to pressures by signaling an imminent rate cut in his Jackson Hole speech. However, the President wants much lower rates, not just the occasional 25-basis-point reduction . . .

09/02/2025

Threading the Needle Gets Tougher

Doll’s Deliberations

Threading the Needle Gets Tougher

Mega cap growth stocks fell back last week (until Friday) following yet another climb to new highs. Valuations for these companies have become extended, similar to previous episodes when investment stampedes developed, because new technologies led to open-ended expectations at a time of plentiful liquidity . . .

08/25/2025

Markets Are Priced for Declining Inflation (We’re Skeptical)

Doll’s Deliberations

Markets Are Priced for Declining Inflation (We’re Skeptical)

The enthusiasm of investors is becoming increasingly (and perhaps excessively) evident. Each new event is being interpreted more positively than would be warranted had global liquidity conditions not been so increasingly buoyant ...

08/18/2025

Is the Bull Run in Extra Innings?

Doll’s Deliberations

Is the Bull Run in Extra Innings?

The investment backdrop in recent years has benefited from the seemingly endless amount of liquidity, resulting in almost all risk assets recording significant price inflation, leaving fewer appealing opportunities.

08/11/2025

Risk-Reward Turning Unfavorable

Doll’s Deliberations

Risk-Reward Turning Unfavorable

Investors have thrown caution to the wind and embraced pro-growth monetary and fiscal policies, while discounting any of the upside inflation or other policy risks, such as several higher U.S. tariff rates.

08/04/2025

Easing Tariff Angst and Fading Recession Risks Embolden Investors

Doll’s Deliberations

Easing Tariff Angst and Fading Recession Risks Embolden Investors

After months of shifting dates and changing tariff rates, the U.S. administration has been able to nearly conclude a few trade deals. There are a lot more to go, including deals with our most important trading partners, namely China, Canada, and Mexico.

07/28/2025

The Bond Market Is More Key Than Usual

Doll’s Deliberations

The Bond Market Is More Key Than Usual

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ yet again hit new record highs last week. The U.S. economy is still holding up well despite higher tariffs and related turbulence. A resumption of growth is likely in 2026 after some softness over the second half of this year. All bets are off if the tariff war escalates.

07/21/2025

The Second Half Begins With New Highs Yet Again

Doll’s Deliberations

The Second Half Begins With New Highs Yet Again

After a string of political wins and the rekindling of animal spirits in financial asset markets, it should not be surprising that Trump would return to the tariff war with some aggressive threats. Still, he is providing plenty of wiggle room for countries to negotiate a “deal.”

07/14/2025

Bob Doll’s Quarterly Investment Commentary 3Q 2025

Market Insights, Thought Leadership, Doll’s Deliberations

Bob Doll’s Quarterly Investment Commentary 3Q 2025

In his quarterly commentary, Bob Doll reviews what drove the sharp rebound in stocks during 2Q25 and what’s driving markets higher now, plus he examines key risks—a cooling labor market, slowing earnings growth, and elevated valuations—and the macro forces likely to shape the second half of the year.

07/07/2025