Commentary

AI Competition and a Possible Trade War Keep Things Interesting
Doll’s Deliberations

AI Competition and a Possible Trade War Keep Things Interesting

When a stock is assumed to have a monopoly and enjoys abnormally high profit margins (e.g., Nvidia), the impact of something challenging that view can be huge, especially if the stock is priced for near perfection. With the discovery of DeepSeek and the jolt it had on the established AI leaders, we got a taste of that phenomenon last week.

02/03/2025
Fewer tailwinds/more headwinds
Doll’s Deliberations

Fewer tailwinds/more headwinds

Rising inflation and interest rates that led to fears of a hard landing through much of 2022 and 2023 have long dissipated. The combination of falling interest rates and continued economic growth have, at least in the past, been associated with strong equity returns.

01/13/2025
10 Predictions Year-End Recap
Doll’s Deliberations

10 Predictions Year-End Recap

The U.S. stock market has experienced back-to-back years of 25+% returns. While a handful of stocks account for the majority of returns, most stocks advanced, as economic growth exceeded expectations and valuation levels rose again.

12/16/2024
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