Doll’s Deliberations

Policy change uncertainty creates volatility in both directions.

Investors are digesting the selection of Team Trump. The next and more important hurdle will be getting clarity on the actual new policies that will be enacted by the incoming administration.

11/25/2024

Doll’s Deliberations

The outlook for stocks and bonds is near peak uncertainty

The U.S. economy has solid momentum and, for now, is in line to receive a further boost based on the incoming president’s proposed policies.

11/18/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Election impacts

Investors generally view a Republican-controlled government as favorable for deregulation, and more favorable on the potential for more mergers and acquisitions and proposed tax cuts.

11/11/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

A less-than-clear forward outlook

Ongoing global economic expansion, central bank policy easing, and abundant financial liquidity continue to tempt investors.

11/04/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

All eyes on the election

These dynamics have led the financial markets to coalesce around the notion that the two most likely outcomes of the election are either a Republican sweep or a Harris win with a split government.

10/28/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

The high-risk, momentum-driven bull market continues

After slowing for several months, macro conditions have improved relative to expectations this fall as the S&P 500 has resumed its steady upward march.

10/21/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Will sticky inflation and a weakening labor market eventually trouble equities?

Equity markets have generally moved higher in the absence of notable bad news, underscoring that the path of least resistance for stock prices is up.

10/14/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Will it be a hard landing, a soft landing, a bumpy landing, or no landing?

While 2Q24 was characterized by narrow market leadership and a hawkish repricing of Fed rate-cut expectations, 3Q saw solid performance from a wider spectrum of companies and increasing expectations for rate cuts in 2024.

10/07/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Will the desired soft landing materialize?

The global easing cycle is in full swing, with China adding to the impetus to boost asset prices and support economic growth following the Fed’s sizable rate cut.

09/30/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Is the Fed taking away the punch bowl or just priming the pump for more asset inflation?

The Fed surprised some by beginning the rate cut cycle with a 50 bp cut.

09/23/2024 5 min read

Commentary

Investors are digesting the selection of Team Trump. The next and more important hurdle will be getting clarity on the actual new policies that will be enacted by the incoming administration.

The U.S. economy has solid momentum and, for now, is in line to receive a further boost based on the incoming president’s proposed policies.

Investors generally view a Republican-controlled government as favorable for deregulation, and more favorable on the potential for more mergers and acquisitions and proposed tax cuts.

Ongoing global economic expansion, central bank policy easing, and abundant financial liquidity continue to tempt investors.

These dynamics have led the financial markets to coalesce around the notion that the two most likely outcomes of the election are either a Republican sweep or a Harris win with a split government.

After slowing for several months, macro conditions have improved relative to expectations this fall as the S&P 500 has resumed its steady upward march.

Equity markets have generally moved higher in the absence of notable bad news, underscoring that the path of least resistance for stock prices is up.

While 2Q24 was characterized by narrow market leadership and a hawkish repricing of Fed rate-cut expectations, 3Q saw solid performance from a wider spectrum of companies and increasing expectations for rate cuts in 2024.

The global easing cycle is in full swing, with China adding to the impetus to boost asset prices and support economic growth following the Fed’s sizable rate cut.

The Fed surprised some by beginning the rate cut cycle with a 50 bp cut.

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