Doll’s Deliberations

The rate rise cycle begins

Central banks are slowly reversing course and cutting policy rates, albeit with varying degrees of fundamental support.

09/16/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Finally, a slowing economy is noticed

Stocks have been roughed up as investors finally recognize that economic growth is slowing.

09/09/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

The economy and markets keep on trucking

The global economic expansion continues, slightly decelerating in the U.S. and slightly improving elsewhere.

09/03/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Fed rate cut expectations buoy markets

The last 12 months’ payroll revision was -818,000 jobs.

08/26/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

What a reversal from last week!

After a few volatile weeks, conditions have calmed in global financial markets.

08/19/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

The stock market recovery is almost as impressive as the recent decline

The choppy up and down stock market briefly erupted into a full-fledged panic, as investors abruptly soured on U.S. economic prospects and became impatient with Fed and BoJ policies.

08/12/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Recession talk resurfaces (finally!)

We were beginning to get nervous about our first prediction for 2024 suggesting a recession to start before year-end and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%.

08/05/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Uncertainty levels have increased

Uncertainties in the form of recent selling pressure among technology/AI stock and the withdrawal of President Biden from the election this November have clouded the picture somewhat.

07/29/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Is the stock market broadening?

After a prolonged period of extraordinarily thin equity market leadership focused on a few mega-cap tech and related shares, the past week or two have witnessed an abrupt change in market dynamics.

07/22/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

So far, risk assets interpreting economic weakness as bullish (Fed can ease!)

Fed Chair Powell nearly declared victory in his Congressional testimony last week regarding an easing in labor market conditions and the overall inflation threat.

07/15/2024 5 min read

Commentary

Central banks are slowly reversing course and cutting policy rates, albeit with varying degrees of fundamental support.

Stocks have been roughed up as investors finally recognize that economic growth is slowing.

The global economic expansion continues, slightly decelerating in the U.S. and slightly improving elsewhere.

The last 12 months’ payroll revision was -818,000 jobs.

After a few volatile weeks, conditions have calmed in global financial markets.

The choppy up and down stock market briefly erupted into a full-fledged panic, as investors abruptly soured on U.S. economic prospects and became impatient with Fed and BoJ policies.

We were beginning to get nervous about our first prediction for 2024 suggesting a recession to start before year-end and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%.

Uncertainties in the form of recent selling pressure among technology/AI stock and the withdrawal of President Biden from the election this November have clouded the picture somewhat.

After a prolonged period of extraordinarily thin equity market leadership focused on a few mega-cap tech and related shares, the past week or two have witnessed an abrupt change in market dynamics.

Fed Chair Powell nearly declared victory in his Congressional testimony last week regarding an easing in labor market conditions and the overall inflation threat.

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