Doll’s Deliberations

10 Predictions 2025: Executive Summary

2024 was more favorable to equities than we thought. U.S. consumer spending held up, the labor market improved early in the year, and U.S. economic data surprised to the upside.

12/31/2024

Doll’s Deliberations

10 Predictions Year-End Recap

The U.S. stock market has experienced back-to-back years of 25+% returns. While a handful of stocks account for the majority of returns, most stocks advanced, as economic growth exceeded expectations and valuation levels rose again.

12/16/2024

Doll’s Deliberations

As we head toward year-end …

Risk assets continue to have tailwinds that are likely to last into the new year against a backdrop of ongoing global economic expansion and supportive monetary policy.

12/09/2024

Doll’s Deliberations

The next decade in capital markets: What investors can expect in 2025 and beyond

The capital markets landscape is set to change markedly over the next decade, with the huge gap in recent performance between stocks and bonds set to narrow or even reverse.

12/02/2024

Doll’s Deliberations

Policy change uncertainty creates volatility in both directions.

Investors are digesting the selection of Team Trump. The next and more important hurdle will be getting clarity on the actual new policies that will be enacted by the incoming administration.

11/25/2024

Doll’s Deliberations

The outlook for stocks and bonds is near peak uncertainty

The U.S. economy has solid momentum and, for now, is in line to receive a further boost based on the incoming president’s proposed policies.

11/18/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Election impacts

Investors generally view a Republican-controlled government as favorable for deregulation, and more favorable on the potential for more mergers and acquisitions and proposed tax cuts.

11/11/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

A less-than-clear forward outlook

Ongoing global economic expansion, central bank policy easing, and abundant financial liquidity continue to tempt investors.

11/04/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

All eyes on the election

These dynamics have led the financial markets to coalesce around the notion that the two most likely outcomes of the election are either a Republican sweep or a Harris win with a split government.

10/28/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

The high-risk, momentum-driven bull market continues

After slowing for several months, macro conditions have improved relative to expectations this fall as the S&P 500 has resumed its steady upward march.

10/21/2024 5 min read

Commentary

2024 was more favorable to equities than we thought. U.S. consumer spending held up, the labor market improved early in the year, and U.S. economic data surprised to the upside.

The U.S. stock market has experienced back-to-back years of 25+% returns. While a handful of stocks account for the majority of returns, most stocks advanced, as economic growth exceeded expectations and valuation levels rose again.

Risk assets continue to have tailwinds that are likely to last into the new year against a backdrop of ongoing global economic expansion and supportive monetary policy.

The capital markets landscape is set to change markedly over the next decade, with the huge gap in recent performance between stocks and bonds set to narrow or even reverse.

Investors are digesting the selection of Team Trump. The next and more important hurdle will be getting clarity on the actual new policies that will be enacted by the incoming administration.

The U.S. economy has solid momentum and, for now, is in line to receive a further boost based on the incoming president’s proposed policies.

Investors generally view a Republican-controlled government as favorable for deregulation, and more favorable on the potential for more mergers and acquisitions and proposed tax cuts.

Ongoing global economic expansion, central bank policy easing, and abundant financial liquidity continue to tempt investors.

These dynamics have led the financial markets to coalesce around the notion that the two most likely outcomes of the election are either a Republican sweep or a Harris win with a split government.

After slowing for several months, macro conditions have improved relative to expectations this fall as the S&P 500 has resumed its steady upward march.

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