Doll’s Deliberations

Recession talk resurfaces (finally!)

We were beginning to get nervous about our first prediction for 2024 suggesting a recession to start before year-end and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%.

08/05/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Uncertainty levels have increased

Uncertainties in the form of recent selling pressure among technology/AI stock and the withdrawal of President Biden from the election this November have clouded the picture somewhat.

07/29/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Is the stock market broadening?

After a prolonged period of extraordinarily thin equity market leadership focused on a few mega-cap tech and related shares, the past week or two have witnessed an abrupt change in market dynamics.

07/22/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

So far, risk assets interpreting economic weakness as bullish (Fed can ease!)

Fed Chair Powell nearly declared victory in his Congressional testimony last week regarding an easing in labor market conditions and the overall inflation threat.

07/15/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Ten Predictions for 2024: Q3 2024 Update

Check out our quarterly Ten Predictions progress report and general market observations

07/08/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Is economic weakness for real?

Asset markets continue to face multiple crosscurrents.

06/24/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

A good inflation report as the economy begins to slow

Global financial markets were whipsawed over the past week by both positive and negative economic and inflation data, the FOMC meeting and even a snap election in France.

06/17/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Crosscurrents continue to be confusing

Growth anxieties have begun to creep into the market following some mildly disappointing U.S. economic data in the past few weeks.

06/10/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

Rates out the curve are key to the equity outlook

The risk-on phase has turned choppy as bond yields have edged higher.

06/03/2024 5 min read

Doll’s Deliberations

The beat (profits feeding self-reinforcing expansion) goes on …

Risk asset markets remain well bid as investors have patiently waited for the promised rate cuts from the Fed.

05/28/2024 5 min read

Commentary

We were beginning to get nervous about our first prediction for 2024 suggesting a recession to start before year-end and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%.

Uncertainties in the form of recent selling pressure among technology/AI stock and the withdrawal of President Biden from the election this November have clouded the picture somewhat.

After a prolonged period of extraordinarily thin equity market leadership focused on a few mega-cap tech and related shares, the past week or two have witnessed an abrupt change in market dynamics.

Fed Chair Powell nearly declared victory in his Congressional testimony last week regarding an easing in labor market conditions and the overall inflation threat.

Check out our quarterly Ten Predictions progress report and general market observations

Asset markets continue to face multiple crosscurrents.

Global financial markets were whipsawed over the past week by both positive and negative economic and inflation data, the FOMC meeting and even a snap election in France.

Growth anxieties have begun to creep into the market following some mildly disappointing U.S. economic data in the past few weeks.

The risk-on phase has turned choppy as bond yields have edged higher.

Risk asset markets remain well bid as investors have patiently waited for the promised rate cuts from the Fed.

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